As the world gears up for the highly anticipated COP30, the geopolitical landscape presents a challenging backdrop for climate negotiations. Rising right-wing extremism, corporate backtracking, and increasing militarism are casting shadows over what is supposed to be a pivotal gathering for global climate action. Ali T. Sheikh, a leading expert on sustainable development and climate change from Pakistan, expresses a mix of apprehension and caution as he reflects on the implications for nations like his own.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) serves as the principal decision-making body for international climate agreements, where a diverse array of stakeholders, including UN agencies, governments, and civil society organizations, converge. Yet, Sheikh emphasizes the critical need to understand who holds the reins of power in these discussions. The private sector, despite its significant influence, often lacks an official observer status, raising questions about the inclusivity and transparency of the negotiations.
One particularly alarming trend is the increase in global military expenditure, which Sheikh warns may directly jeopardize climate finance commitments. Recent agreements among NATO countries to raise defense spending by 5% of their GDP signal a diversion of funds that could otherwise support climate initiatives. “The axe will fall on climate finance,” Sheikh warns, suggesting that such militaristic priorities could dismantle decades of climate cooperation established since the inception of COP meetings.
This year, after three consecutive COPs hosted by oil-rich autocratic regimes, the event moves to Brazil—a nation known for its stronger indigenous rights and commitment to forest and biodiversity preservation. Sheikh notes that Pakistan has much to learn from Brazil’s approach to climate discussions. However, the global dialogue is further complicated by the rhetoric of leaders such as former President Donald Trump, whose recent statements at the United Nations dismissing climate change as a “great con job” only exacerbate the challenges faced by vulnerable nations like Pakistan.
Pakistan has consistently ranked at the top of the Climate Risk Index due to its susceptibility to severe climate impacts and economic losses. Sheikh states, “From the perspective of a developing country like Pakistan, statements that dismiss climate change as a ‘con job’ are a profound denial of the lived reality of the people.” The catastrophic floods that have ravaged Pakistan in recent years serve as harsh reminders that climate change is not a distant threat but an immediate crisis demanding urgent action.
The economic fallout from these disasters has been staggering, with the 2022 floods alone causing over $30 billion in damages and setting back Pakistan’s development by years. Sheikh stresses that for countries like Pakistan, transitioning to cleaner energy and enhancing climate resilience is not merely a policy choice but a matter of survival. “It’s about protecting our agricultural backbone and safeguarding our communities from unpredictable and devastating weather patterns.”
Despite his criticism of Trump’s dismissive stance, Sheikh advocates for a proactive and collaborative approach in the lead-up to COP30. When Pakistan arrives in Brazil, he asserts it should do so with a spirit of partnership rather than merely asking for aid. “We have successful projects to showcase, such as the housing initiatives for flood-affected communities in Sindh,” he points out, emphasizing the importance of demonstrating Pakistan’s capabilities on the international stage.
To secure timely support, Sheikh argues that Pakistan must clearly articulate its climate priorities, including enhanced construction standards for resilient infrastructure. He advocates for a strategic presentation at COP, suggesting that Pakistan should engage with broader audiences beyond its own pavilion to generate greater influence and support.
The opportunity presented by COP30 in Brazil also extends to regional climate cooperation. Sheikh highlights that many of Pakistan’s climate challenges, including heatwaves and flooding, are shared with neighboring countries. He calls for dialogue between India and Pakistan, noting that even modest discussions could lay the groundwork for meaningful collaboration on transboundary water management and climate resilience.
On the topic of climate finance, Sheikh emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift in how it is perceived. “Rather than viewing climate investment as a burden, it should be seen as an essential investment in the future,” particularly for nations striving to implement adaptation strategies despite limited resources. However, the absence of major players like the United States at COP raises concerns about global commitment to climate action.
As COP30 approaches, Sheikh acknowledges the immense expectations placed on Brazil to lead discussions on deforestation, biodiversity, and climate justice. Yet, he warns that Brazil’s own challenges with environmental degradation may hinder its ability to meet these expectations.
Despite skepticism surrounding the effectiveness of COPs, Sheikh argues that dismissing them outright is short-sighted. Much of the critical negotiation and coalition-building occurs outside the formal sessions, where informal pledges and behind-the-scenes diplomacy can lead to substantial outcomes.
With the world’s eyes on Brazil as it prepares to host thousands of delegates and leaders, Sheikh hopes that the event will redirect the conversation toward justice for those most affected by climate change. “We need to shake things up and inject more energy into the discourse,” he asserts, as COP30 faces the challenge of delivering real action and accountability in the face of pressing global climate crises.
In the lead-up to COP30, the stakes have never been higher. As nations gather at the gateway to the Amazon River, the imperative for decisive, equitable climate action grows ever more urgent.
