In the landscape of President Donald Trump’s America First foreign policy, Israel has often stood out as a notable exception—a nation that continues to receive unwavering support even when its policies diverge from U.S. interests or the preferences of the president. Israeli leaders frequently emphasize the shared values between the two countries, but there are deeper motivations at play.
Trump’s inner circle is filled with staunch supporters of Israel, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, along with a plethora of influential pro-Israel donors. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has skillfully flattered Trump, going so far as to name settlements after him and praise his achievements, effectively appealing to Trump’s vanity. This blend of media support, congressional backing, and strategic flattery has generally worked in Israel’s favor, particularly when Trump aligned with Israel to target Iran’s nuclear capabilities last June.
However, scenarios exist where Trump might pivot away from Israel. Known for his unpredictable nature, Trump has turned on various allies, including Canada, Denmark, Germany, and the United Kingdom, leaving them reeling from unexpected shifts in his foreign policy. After years of praise for Russia and President Vladimir Putin, Trump has recently begun to criticize them, mocking Russian military strength and advocating for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Moreover, U.S. policy in the Middle East does not always align seamlessly with Israeli interests. The United States has struck a peace agreement with the Houthis in Yemen, despite the group’s ongoing assaults on Israel. In Syria, Trump has praised the new leadership while Israel has continued its military operations against various factions, further complicating the situation and showcasing a disconnect between U.S. actions and Israeli security concerns.
The situation in Gaza could become a significant point of contention. Trump has chastised Putin for what he sees as an unproductive military strategy, despite U.S. efforts to propose favorable terms for negotiations. With Trump’s backing, Witkoff has sought to mediate the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, yet Netanyahu’s insistence on the complete destruction of Hamas poses a nearly impossible obstacle. Recent statements from Trump indicate a willingness to diverge from traditional Israeli positions, proposing a U.S. plan that encourages Palestinian statehood and rejecting Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Such remarks suggest that Trump may be willing to prioritize his own political aspirations over unwavering support for Israel.
Trump’s affinity for winners seems to be waning in light of Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, while media portrayals of Israel’s military successes have bolstered his support for their actions against Iran. However, as military victories can breed confidence, failures—like those in Gaza—can lead to increasing dissatisfaction and humanitarian crises that invite international criticism.
Israel’s actions have also complicated U.S. relations with Gulf allies, which Trump holds dear. Reports indicate Trump’s frustration with Netanyahu following an Israeli attack on Qatar, a nation that hosts U.S. troops and has been a significant ally.
Despite Netanyahu’s attempts at loyalty, he has not always aligned perfectly with Trump’s preferences. After congratulating Joe Biden on his election win, Trump vehemently criticized Netanyahu, expressing his disdain for what he perceived as a betrayal of loyalty.
While Israel remains a focal point of support within the Republican establishment, this backing is less robust among Trump’s base. Figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene have openly criticized Israel’s actions, labeling them as genocide, and others, like Tucker Carlson, have suggested the U.S. should withdraw its support entirely. This faction within the MAGA movement harbors a general hostility toward foreign aid, with Israel being the most significant recipient. Additionally, younger Americans exhibit a declining favorability towards Israel, with less than 10 percent of those under 34 supporting Netanyahu’s policies.
Should Trump’s support erode, it is more likely to manifest as a reduction in aid and public criticism rather than a complete severance of ties. While Trump may become increasingly disillusioned with Netanyahu, he is unlikely to eliminate critical aspects of U.S.-Israel relations, such as intelligence sharing and arms sales. Netanyahu has acknowledged the necessity for Israel to prepare for potential isolation rather than compromise its security.
Nonetheless, the risks for Israel are substantial. U.S. assistance carries symbolic weight, affirming Israel’s standing among allies and adversaries alike. A reduction in aid could strain Israel’s defense budget and hinder its procurement of advanced military systems, while public criticism could embolden adversaries and complicate Israel’s diplomatic efforts.
Ultimately, Israel’s fate under a Trump presidency hinges less on mutual strategic interests and more on the president’s fluctuating perceptions of loyalty and success. Trump’s history indicates that no ally is immune from his ire when he feels insulted or when their policies hinder his quest for personal glory. For Israel, this volatility underscores the precariousness of their relationship, where even deep-rooted ties may not shield them from Trump’s capricious impulses.
While any reduction in support may not lead to a complete break, it could weaken Israel’s deterrence, embolden its opponents, and signal to other partners that U.S. commitment is negotiable. In a region where credibility is paramount, the mere possibility of abandonment by its most vital ally could prove as damaging as actual disengagement.
