Hippopotamuses are fascinating creatures. At first glance, they appear calm and leisurely as they bask in muddy waters. However, appearances can be deceiving. Survivors of encounters with hippos recount terrifying tales of sudden, unpredictable charges, which have made these animals the deadliest mammals on earth, responsible for approximately 500 human fatalities each year—23 times more than lions. When faced with a charging hippo, humans have limited options for defense; negotiation is futile, and the best strategy is often to avoid them entirely. If avoidance fails, playing dead could be a last-resort tactic.
Since Donald Trump assumed the presidency again in January, European leaders have found themselves in a similar predicament, facing a metaphorical charging hippo. U.S. policies under Trump are notoriously unpredictable, shifting rapidly and often leaving allies confused about his intentions. Negotiating with Trump presents its own challenges, as it can be difficult to discern what he truly desires.
Despite these daunting circumstances, there is hope. In a recent policy brief for the European Council on Foreign Relations, I argue that European Union policymakers can develop a coherent and pragmatic response to Trump’s aggressive stance on trade and investment. By channeling their inner naturalists, EU leaders can draw five essential lessons from hippo encounters that can help them navigate the turbulent waters of Trumponomics.
First and foremost, it is crucial to understand the facts. Safari guides often chuckle when tourists boast about outrunning a hippo, which can charge at speeds of approximately 20 miles per hour—far beyond the capabilities of even the fastest athletes. Similarly, a solid grasp of the facts is essential for Europeans today, particularly to counter the misconceptions stemming from the recent U.S.-EU trade deal concluded in July.
A poll conducted by Le Grand Continent revealed that 77 percent of European respondents mistakenly believed that the United States emerged as the biggest winner from the agreement. In reality, tariffs are import taxes that U.S. firms and consumers bear, meaning that while some EU exporters may lose market share in the U.S., economists estimate that the overall impact on the EU’s GDP will be minimal, with the U.S. itself being the primary loser from these measures.
A better understanding of the facts would have helped European leaders dismiss alarmist headlines regarding the deal, such as claims of a $600 billion investment from Europe into the U.S. This figure merely reflects already planned corporate investments, not a financial commitment from European taxpayers.
Additionally, the promise to import $750 billion worth of energy from the U.S. by 2028 has been deemed unrealistic by experts, who argue that U.S. oil and gas companies lack the capacity to meet this target without abandoning existing customers globally.
As Trump enters the ninth month of his second term, European leaders would be better positioned to counter his unpredictable tactics by staying informed and grounded in reality.
The second lesson is to resist the urge to retaliate. Responding to a disgruntled hippo with aggression is futile; it only exacerbates the situation. The idea that the EU should impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods fits into this category of self-harm. Economists from the Peterson Institute for International Economics warn that such tariffs would only double the economic repercussions for Europe by 2030, leading to greater self-inflicted pain.
Third, it is essential to identify and leverage unexpected strengths. While humans may lack the raw power to confront a hippo directly, they possess unique abilities—such as the option to play dead. In this context, the EU can capitalize on its reputation for stability and predictability, qualities that may ultimately bore Trump, who thrives on drama and attention.
This “play-dead” strategy could also make Europe a more attractive destination for global investment, especially in contrast to the erratic U.S. policies. To withstand the volatile nature of Trump’s administration, it is vital for the EU to recognize and utilize its underappreciated strengths.
Fourth, unity is paramount. The old adage that cohesive groups fare better under pressure holds true in both the wild and international politics. If safari-goers scatter when faced with a charging hippo, their chances of survival plummet. The same principle applies to European nations in their dealings with a capricious United States.
Trump has openly expressed disdain for the EU, viewing it as an entity that seeks to undermine U.S. interests. He would undoubtedly relish any scenario in which EU countries abandon collective negotiation efforts in favor of individual agreements with the U.S.
A recent reaction from France, which criticized the U.S.-EU trade deal as “submission,” illustrates the risks of disunity. While Paris sought to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, its approach could undermine the EU’s collective bargaining power.
Lastly, it is crucial for European leaders to let go of what is beyond their control. Negotiating with a hippo is futile, just as trying to persuade Trump to abandon his tariff fixation is likely to be. Trump sees tariffs as a political tool, using them to pressure the EU and other allies to conform to his agenda.
In conclusion, European policymakers must learn to navigate the complexities of Trumponomics while acknowledging that nonsensical aggression does not always require a direct response. By emphasizing factual understanding, avoiding retaliatory measures, embracing unexpected strengths, maintaining unity, and relinquishing the urge to control the uncontrollable, the EU can better prepare itself for the ongoing challenges posed by Trump’s presidency.
As the age-old advice suggests, it’s always wise to steer clear of the hippos.
