China has long voiced its opposition to the United States’ attempts to force a sale of the popular video-sharing platform TikTok, previously criticizing Washington for what it described as “robbers’ logic” regarding the app’s success. However, recent developments have seen Beijing shifting its stance, now engaging in discussions about how ByteDance, the Chinese company behind TikTok, might transfer ownership of its U.S. operations.
This pivot raises significant questions about what China hopes to achieve in return for such a concession. Analysts suggest that Beijing may be recognizing TikTok’s potential as a strategic bargaining chip that could yield favorable outcomes on a variety of pressing issues, including trade relations and technological restrictions.
As of now, no definitive agreement has been reached concerning TikTok, which U.S. officials have labeled as a propaganda vehicle for the Chinese government and a risk to user privacy. A myriad of uncertainties remains regarding the implications of any sale, particularly concerning ownership and control of TikTok’s highly regarded recommendation algorithm, which has been pivotal to its meteoric rise in popularity, boasting over 170 million users in the U.S. alone.
Complicating matters further are Chinese export controls established in 2020, which restrict companies from transferring sensitive technologies, including TikTok’s algorithm, without government approval. A recent editorial from the state-run China Daily reiterated that these export restrictions represent a “red line” in any negotiations over TikTok.
If China is prepared to relinquish control over the algorithm, it is likely to seek significant concessions from the U.S. on critical issues such as trade imbalances, restrictions on Chinese technology firms, and the contentious Taiwan question. Dexter Roberts, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, indicated that a shift in China’s willingness to negotiate could stem from a belief that they can extract more favorable terms from the U.S. than initially anticipated.
On the American front, President Donald Trump appears keen to finalize a TikTok deal swiftly, possibly as a means to secure a long-awaited face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since his return to the White House. According to Roberts, in pursuit of this meeting and a broader agreement, Trump might be inclined to make considerable concessions.
While both nations express optimism about resolving the TikTok impasse, their narratives diverge significantly regarding the current state of discussions. In a recent briefing, an unnamed senior White House official claimed that the Trump administration is confident that a deal is in the works, which would involve licensing TikTok’s algorithm to a new U.S.-based joint venture.
Reports suggest that Oracle, a Texas-based cloud computing company, would oversee and retrain the algorithm using American data. This potential involvement comes amid allegations from several Republican lawmakers that TikTok has been promoting pro-Palestinian content in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, where Israeli military actions have resulted in a staggering loss of life among Palestinians.
In the same briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt outlined that the proposed spin-off could result in TikTok being governed by a seven-member board predominantly composed of Americans, thus ensuring that the algorithm is “controlled by America.”
Jeffrey Towson, a digital strategy consultant with past experience in China, noted that both nations now share a commitment to “info-nationalism.” He pointed out that China has maintained that information flows should be regulated within its borders, while the U.S. has recently adopted a similar stance, acknowledging that digital platforms wield significant influence over public discourse.
Should an accord over TikTok materialize, it could signal a thaw in the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Heiwai Tang, director of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, emphasized that if the current 30 percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced, it would represent a substantial victory for China.
Despite the ongoing discussions, China has only indicated that a “basic framework consensus” regarding TikTok has been reached. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that the Chinese government respects the interests of the involved company and supports fruitful negotiations that adhere to market principles and comply with Chinese laws.
The ambiguous language surrounding the “framework” for resolving the TikTok issue leaves ample room for negotiation. According to Roberts, the specifics—particularly regarding algorithm ownership—remain contentious and not yet resolved.
Chunmeizi Su, a media and communications lecturer at the University of Sydney who studies platforms like TikTok, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of any licensing agreement encompassing the full intricacies of TikTok’s algorithm. She speculated that ByteDance might prefer to shut down TikTok in the U.S. rather than disclose vital algorithmic details, suggesting that any licensing deal would likely only involve surface-level technologies, yielding a mere facade of TikTok’s U.S. operations.
Although a resolution concerning TikTok could help lower tensions between the two powers, experts warn that the U.S. and China might avoid explicitly linking the sale to concessions in other fields. Charlie Chai, vice head of research at Beijing-based 86Research, stated that while there might not be a direct trade-off, the U.S. could quietly postpone new tariffs or export restrictions as a gesture of goodwill, preserving the political optics necessary to navigate sensitive core interests.
The complexities of these negotiations reflect a broader struggle for dominance in the global tech landscape, where digital platforms increasingly serve as battlegrounds for geopolitical maneuvering. As the discussions unfold, the fate of TikTok remains a microcosm of the larger tensions that continue to define U.S.-China relations.
