In his compelling book, *The World’s Worst Bet*, David Lynch delves into the complexities of globalization, an idea once heralded as the beacon of hope for a post-Cold War world—promoting growth, prosperity, and peace. However, the reality has been far different, as globalization has often served as a catalyst for displacement, division, and the polarization of politics.
Lynch, a seasoned economics reporter, meticulously charts over three decades of history to illuminate how globalization has veered off course. Key factors contributing to this misdirection include the “China shock,” which saw a surge of low-cost exports devastate working-class communities; an unending pursuit of corporate efficiency and profit; increasingly fragile global supply chains; the financialization of the economy; the 2008 financial crisis; the COVID-19 pandemic; and ongoing conflicts, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Given this backdrop, it is no surprise that globalization has encountered significant challenges.
What was once considered a fringe concern—such as the fear that globalization would undermine American workers or that expanded economic integration could devolve into a zero-sum game—has now become mainstream in Washington. There’s a striking lack of distinction in economic policy between figures like Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with Trump’s second term marked by an even more fervent rejection of the tenets of globalization.
At the heart of Lynch’s analysis lies the question of how such a promising concept has led to disillusionment and hardship. His book offers a sprawling history of an idea that initially promised a transformative future but instead delivered a dystopian reality for many.
The narrative traverses three decades of U.S. economic history, which has increasingly intertwined with political history—a duality that serves both as a strength and a weakness of Lynch’s work. His book presents a dizzying array of figures, from presidents and policymakers to workers and corporate executives, all contributing to the understanding of how globalization went awry.
Lynch’s vignettes—like those chronicling President Bill Clinton’s efforts to integrate China into the global economy, culminating in its accession to the World Trade Organization, or the harrowing accounts of factory workers witnessing their communities crumble—make for engaging reading. However, the breadth of material can be overwhelming, as the tumultuous events of the past few decades—from the “giant sucking sound” of NAFTA debates to the Seattle protests against the WTO, and the rise of Trump—defy a neat narrative.
Some of the book’s most enlightening moments come from revisiting Washington’s embrace of globalization in the 1990s and the prevailing belief that enhanced trade relations with China, Canada, Mexico, and others would yield mutual economic and political benefits. While this idea dominated at the onset of hyper-globalization, it has faced intense scrutiny in recent years. Lynch skillfully reveals that skepticism was already present during the heyday of globalization, featuring a cast of characters such as fair trade activist Lori Wallach and veteran venture capitalist Tim Draper, who voiced concerns when few were listening.
Lynch also explores the present landscape, noting the rise of Trump and Biden’s evolution into a trade skeptic and advocate for the working class. Trump’s return to power could signal a more aggressive stance against the global trading framework—a reality that many view with trepidation.
Looking ahead, Lynch suggests that the future of globalization will not resemble the unfettered globalism of the late 20th century nor a complete retreat into isolationism. Instead, nations and corporations will navigate a more intricate landscape, carefully weighing industry by industry whether to collaborate or prioritize self-reliance. As geopolitical risks escalate, national security concerns will increasingly overshadow economic efficiency.
While Lynch’s observations are echoed in recent works, such as Edward Fishman’s *Chokepoints* and David Sanger’s *New Cold Wars*, it is critical to note that these national-security imperatives were not the root causes of public disillusionment with globalization. The core issue remains that not all the benefits of globalization have trickled down. While the U.S. economy as a whole has reaped rewards from increased trade, certain communities have been devastated as low-cost manufacturing has obliterated entire towns.
The fallout from the financial crisis and pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions has only intensified the skepticism surrounding globalization, rendering previous notions of its seamless benefits as little more than empty rhetoric.
Lynch’s work is firmly centered on the U.S. experience with globalization and the resulting policy shifts across the political spectrum, even as some voices continue to advocate for deeper economic integration. For many parts of the world, globalization has not been a catastrophic gamble but rather a resounding success—lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, particularly in nations like China, and elevating living standards in various countries from Bulgaria to Indonesia.
Despite the numerous critiques of globalization, particularly in the wake of the Trump administration’s trade policies and tariffs, it is essential to recognize that globalization is far from extinguished. While global trading integration has not reached the heights of the 1990s, it is not in total retreat either. According to the World Bank, trade as a share of global GDP remains robust, comparable to pre-pandemic levels and even surpassing figures from the years leading up to the financial crisis.
Countries such as those in the European Union continue to embrace globalization, albeit with caution towards investments from nations like China. These contrasting narratives—of devastated industrial centers in the U.S. juxtaposed with burgeoning economies elsewhere—highlight the inequities inherent in globalization, as Lynch notes in his conclusion.
As the U.S. grapples with correcting its misguided approach to globalization, there is a legitimate risk of overcompensation. Consumers around the globe have benefitted significantly from the influx of affordable goods and services, while whole economies, particularly those at the top, gained far more than they lost.
However, Lynch’s analysis falls short in prescribing concrete solutions to make globalization equitable and beneficial for all. He suggests reforms akin to those proposed decades ago—such as modifying the tax code or providing support for displaced workers—yet fails to address the pressing need for a modern safety net capable of withstanding future economic shocks.
As Lynch warns, the next wave of disruption could stem from emerging challenges such as artificial intelligence and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The U.S. safety net, which proved inadequate during the tumult of earlier globalization, is ill-prepared for the complexities that lie ahead. It is crucial for policymakers to learn from the past and develop strategies that ensure a more inclusive economic future.
