Moldova has emerged from its recent elections with a significant pro-Western victory, as the governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured a decisive parliamentary majority amidst unprecedented challenges from Russian interference. The results, reflecting a clear mandate for European alignment, are a crucial step forward in Moldova’s journey toward EU integration. However, the battle against Russian meddling is far from over.
Over the past few years, Moldova has transformed into a key geopolitical battleground, pitting Russian interests against those of the West. The Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to exert influence over Moldova are expected to continue, and as former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill aptly noted, this election represents “only the end of the beginning” in a complex struggle for democracy.
European support played a pivotal role in enabling Moldova to conduct free and fair elections in the face of Russian disinformation and other forms of interference. However, complacency would be a dangerous misstep. European leaders must ramp up their support for Moldova’s ambitions to integrate with the EU by backing investigations into illicit Russian financing, investing in the resilience of Moldova’s power grid, and ultimately providing a clear and expedited path for EU accession.
In the recent elections, the pro-EU PAS garnered 50.1% of the vote, triumphing over the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc, which received 24.2%. The Alternative party, also aligned with Russian interests, followed closely, as did the populist Our Party. Despite this victory, the road to democracy in Moldova has been fraught with obstacles. As Igor Grosu, the leader of PAS, aptly stated, Russia “threw into battle everything it had that was most vile—mountains of money, mountains of lies, mountains of illegalities.” Accusations of Russian interference included bomb threats, cyberattacks on electoral systems, and false claims from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service alleging that NATO was planning to invade Moldova.
In the lead-up to the elections, President Maia Sandu warned that Russia was spending “hundreds of millions of euros” to manipulate the electoral process. Moscow deployed Russian Orthodox priests and advanced a network of disinformation bots to sway public opinion. Exploiting Moldova’s significant Russian-speaking population, these operations were particularly pronounced in Gagauzia, a historically pro-Russian region that has been at odds with Sandu’s administration.
This latest chapter of Russian meddling mirrors previous attempts to disrupt Moldova’s democratic processes, including allegations of vote-buying schemes orchestrated by pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor during past elections. Although Russia has denied any wrongdoing, its accusations of insufficient polling stations and claims of election fraud serve as a reminder of the Kremlin’s ongoing attempts to undermine Moldova’s sovereignty.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova was granted EU candidate status, inciting a full-scale hybrid warfare campaign from Moscow aimed at derailing Moldova’s European aspirations. Sandu emphasized that the Kremlin’s aggressive tactics are a direct response to Moldova’s progress toward EU integration.
Despite Russia’s attempts at interference, Moldova’s proactive defense strategy has proven effective. The European Union deployed its Hybrid Rapid Response Team to support the electoral process and authorized its Cybersecurity Reserve to help manage incidents of cyber warfare. Years of support from the U.S. and EU in bolstering Moldova’s cyber and election security infrastructure provided the necessary resilience to withstand these threats.
Nevertheless, the EU’s work is far from complete. To protect both its interests and those of the Moldovan people, the EU must remain vigilant against Russian interference. Recent resolutions from the European Parliament to enhance resources for Moldova’s defense against hybrid threats are a promising step forward.
To further counteract Moscow’s malign influence, the EU should engage in its own information campaigns, broadcasting the truth about Russian activities and putting the Kremlin on the defensive. Additionally, providing legal and technical support to Moldovan authorities investigating illicit financial flows linked to Russian actors will strengthen Moldova’s democratic institutions.
Moreover, the United States has recently approved a $130 million project to build a high-voltage transmission line, enhancing Moldova’s energy independence by reducing reliance on Russian gas. This investment exemplifies the type of support the EU should also continue providing to bolster Moldova’s energy security.
Ultimately, Brussels must respond to the aspirations of Moldovan voters who have demonstrated their commitment to democracy by electing pro-European representatives. Fast-tracking Moldova’s EU membership would send a powerful message to Putin and serve as a firm rejection of his attempts at destabilization.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Moldova for its choice of “Europe. Democracy. Freedom.” However, as Putin seeks new opportunities to challenge the West, his vision for Moldova starkly contrasts with the aspirations of its people. The EU must remain attentive to Moldova’s needs; otherwise, the ongoing hybrid war launched by the Kremlin could exacerbate instability in an already fragile European landscape.
