In a notable shift in U.S. foreign policy, the Biden administration is currently considering supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has labeled as a “completely new stage of escalation.” This discussion comes less than two months after a diplomatic summit between President Biden and Putin in Alaska, raising eyebrows about the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Russia relations.
The potential decision to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which have the capability to reach deep into Russian territory, marks a significant departure from an administration that previously expressed doubts about Ukraine’s prospects in the ongoing conflict against Russia. Experts suggest that this decision aligns with both Ukraine’s military objectives and U.S. strategic interests, particularly in enhancing Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian oil infrastructure while minimally impacting U.S. military stockpiles.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed on Sunday that the administration is actively exploring the sale of these missiles to Ukraine, a request reportedly made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is poised to provide Ukraine with intelligence to facilitate long-range strikes targeting Russia’s oil sector.
The inclusion of Tomahawk missiles could bolster Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to degrade Russian oil production. According to military analysts Bryan Clark and Mark Cancian, this move would significantly enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike at Russian energy resources, an area where Ukrainian drone strikes have already proven effective, reducing Russia’s oil refining capacity by as much as 20%. This reduction poses serious challenges to Russia’s federal budget, which heavily relies on oil and gas revenues for government spending.
While Ukraine has made strides with its current campaign, the payloads of its drones fall short compared to the formidable Tomahawk missile, which boasts a 1,000-pound warhead. The Ukrainian military has also begun deploying a domestically produced missile, dubbed the Flamingo, which is similar in concept but remains largely untested and available in limited quantities.
“There’s a significant difference in lethality between Ukrainian drones and the Tomahawk,” noted Clark, emphasizing the advantages the latter would provide.
From a logistical standpoint, the U.S. has a vast stockpile of Tomahawk missiles, having produced them since the 1980s. The Pentagon’s 2025 budget submission indicates that nearly 9,000 of these missiles have been manufactured, presenting a unique opportunity for the U.S. to allocate some of these weapons to Ukraine without severely depleting its own reserves. Defense experts estimate that the U.S. could potentially spare up to 200 Tomahawks for Ukraine, particularly as many of these missiles approach their retirement age.
However, the process of transferring these weapons is not without challenges. Pentagon officials may raise concerns about depleting the U.S. arsenal, especially after a brief suspension of munitions transfers to Ukraine in July, which was reportedly initiated due to a review of U.S. military stockpiles. Critics within the Defense Department, like Elbridge Colby, advocate for prioritizing preparations for potential conflicts with China, suggesting that Tomahawks are essential for future Pacific engagements.
Nonetheless, the White House holds the authority to override any Pentagon hesitations, as demonstrated by previous instances where President Trump reinstated weapons shipments after pauses.
Another significant hurdle is the operational capability for Ukraine to launch Tomahawk missiles, which are primarily designed for ship-based deployment. The U.S. Marine Corps has fielded a small number of ground-based launchers, but these programs are still in their infancy. Despite this, experts like Clark express optimism, citing Ukraine’s innovative adaptations of other weapon systems, such as the successful land-launch modifications of sea-launched Harpoon missiles.
The anticipated response from Russia also plays a crucial role in the U.S. decision-making process. While concerns about escalation exist, experts like Clark argue that the level of escalation remains relatively low, noting that Ukraine has already been executing strikes deep within Russian territory using drones. “Ukraine is already conducting the kinds of attacks that could be accomplished with a Tomahawk using their current drone capabilities,” he stated.
As the situation develops, the potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine stands as a pivotal moment in the context of U.S.-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict, reflecting a decisive commitment to support Ukraine’s military efforts against Russian aggression.
