
The ongoing government shutdown has cast a shadow over critical economic indicators, most notably the jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This development comes at a time when economists are expressing heightened concern over the potential for an impending recession in the United States.
Typically, the BLS provides essential monthly estimates of employment and earnings across the nation, offering crucial insights for policymakers, government officials, and employers alike. However, due to the Department of Labor’s (DOL) contingency plans amid the shutdown, the release of this vital data, originally scheduled for Friday, has been suspended. This decision is particularly noteworthy given President Donald Trump’s recent history of politicizing these reports, having previously alleged that unfavorable jobs numbers were indicative of “rigged” data. His actions culminated in the firing of the former BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, earlier this year.
Paul Schroeder, co-chair of the Friends of the BLS—a nonpartisan organization dedicated to supporting the agency—has emphasized the urgency of having access to employment data at this juncture. He remarked on Wednesday that the current economic environment, exacerbated by the repercussions of Trump’s tariffs and significant revisions to previously reported BLS data, makes the situation even more critical. Last month’s revisions revealed that nearly a million fewer jobs had been created over the year leading up to March 2025 than initially thought. According to Schroeder, “the economy is changing, and that’s what’s concerning.”
He added, “Unfortunately, it looks like it’s going in the wrong direction, not the right direction, and that’s why we need this data now.” Schroeder, who also serves as the executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics, expressed frustration at the loss of such an important source of information during a time when economists are trying to navigate a turbulent economic landscape.
Echoing Schroeder’s sentiments, Erica Groshen, who held the BLS commissioner position from 2013 to 2017, pointed out that the current economic conditions make the absence of reliable data particularly alarming. As the shutdown persists, it remains uncertain whether the jobs report will be available immediately once the government reopens. The DOL has indicated that any data release will likely experience delays if the shutdown continues for an extended period. Historical precedent shows that after a 16-day shutdown in 2013, the BLS was able to release its information once operations resumed.
The limited data currently available does not paint a rosy picture. A recent report from ADP revealed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs last month, along with a downward revision of previously reported job gains in August, which shifted from an initial estimate of 54,000 new jobs to a net loss of 3,000.
Adding to the uncertainty surrounding the BLS is the White House’s recent withdrawal of Trump’s nominee for the agency’s new commissioner. E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist with ties to the Heritage Foundation and a history of criticizing the BLS, was originally selected to replace McEntarfer. However, his nomination faced significant backlash from economists who labeled him as “completely unqualified” and an “extreme partisan.” Critics have pointed to his record of producing biased findings, raising alarms about the potential for political influence over the BLS if he were to be confirmed.
The Friends of the BLS welcomed the news of Antoni’s withdrawal, stating that the next nominee should possess a strong commitment to accurate and reliable statistics alongside excellent management skills. Groshen, who is also a co-chair of the Friends of BLS, highlighted the daunting challenges that lie ahead for any new commissioner, including understaffing and ongoing threats to the integrity and independence of the BLS.
In a statement regarding the nomination, Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, defended Antoni, asserting that the agency requires reform and that Antoni was the right person for the job.
As federal employees navigate the impact of the shutdown, many have received directives instructing them to blame Democrats for the deadlock in their out-of-office responses. This raises ethical concerns regarding compliance with the Hatch Act, which restricts political activity by federal employees. Reports have surfaced indicating that various federal agencies, including the Small Business Administration (SBA) and the Office of Management and Budget, have encouraged staff to attribute the shutdown to Democratic opposition.
Groshen expressed her shock at the emergence of these out-of-office messages, while Schroeder lamented the detrimental effects of both the shutdown and the politicization of the BLS. He argued that such actions erode the public’s trust in the independence and reliability of federal statistics, ultimately harming the nation’s data infrastructure.
As the government remains in shutdown mode, the absence of crucial economic data only adds to the uncertainty facing Americans. With the stakes higher than ever, the call for transparent and trustworthy economic reporting has never been more urgent.