The civil war in Sudan, now in its third year, continues to wreak havoc as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) further unravels the nation’s stability, leading to what many are calling the world’s most severe humanitarian disaster. As fighting persists, estimates of the death toll have reached tens of thousands, with countless others succumbing to disease and hunger exacerbated by the ongoing conflict.
This September has seen critical military developments while the humanitarian situation grows increasingly dire.
### Fighting and Military Control
As observers await the potential return of Sudan’s wartime government, having temporarily relocated to Port Sudan, the dynamics on the ground remain precarious. The RSF has seized control of much of the expansive western region of Darfur, except for the capital of North Darfur, el-Fasher, which remains a stronghold for the SAF. In an aggressive move to solidify its dominance, the RSF has encircled el-Fasher with massive sand berms that create a dangerous “kill-box,” effectively trapping civilians and limiting their escape routes.
Analysts suggest that the RSF is currently on the defensive, with the SAF gaining ground around el-Fasher, advancing from the north towards strategic locations. Notably, a drone strike attributed to the RSF resulted in the tragic loss of over 70 lives in el-Fasher, marking one of the bloodiest days since the siege began last May.
Further complicating the military landscape, the RSF maintains significant control over the Kordofan region to the south, aided by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), allowing for cross-border access to South Sudan. Despite these gains, the SAF holds onto el-Obeid, a critical city in North Kordofan, which is essential for preventing RSF encroachment into central Sudan. Recent strategic victories for the SAF have seen them reclaim important territories, including Umm Sumeima and Bara, amid battles that some analysts have likened to a “Mad Max” scenario of chaos and destruction.
### Humanitarian Crisis
The humanitarian toll of this conflict is staggering. A landslide in early September reportedly claimed over 1,000 lives in Tarasin, Central Darfur, with local officials indicating that many bodies have since been recovered and buried. Famine conditions are prevalent in areas such as el-Fasher and the nearby Zamzam displacement camp, where the RSF has trapped around 260,000 civilians, including 130,000 children.
According to the World Food Programme, a staggering 24.6 million people—nearly half of Sudan’s population—are suffering from acute food shortages, with 637,000 facing devastating levels of hunger. Humanitarian aid is severely hampered by ongoing road closures and bureaucratic obstacles, with rights groups accusing both warring factions of weaponizing food against the civilian population.
Furthermore, the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) has reported the worst cholera outbreak in years, a direct consequence of the war’s impact on Sudan’s infrastructure. In one area of the capital, over 5,000 cases of malaria, typhoid, and dengue fever have been documented in the past month, accompanied by a rising death toll. Tragically, Sudanese refugees attempting to escape the violence have also met with fatal consequences, with reports confirming at least 50 deaths after a vessel carrying them caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea.
### Diplomacy and Political Developments
In response to the escalating crisis, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the involved parties to return to negotiations to seek a sustainable resolution to the conflict. Meanwhile, the European Union has taken steps to impose restrictive measures against two companies—Alkhaleej Bank and Red Rock Mining Company—both of which are reportedly tied to financing military operations for the RSF and SAF, respectively.
Additionally, individual sanctions have been placed on key military figures from both factions, including SAF commander Abu Aqla Mohamed Kaikal and RSF field commander Hussein Barsham, both linked to numerous atrocities in conflict-affected regions.
Efforts to broker a truce have emerged from a coalition of nations, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States, proposing a three-month humanitarian ceasefire followed by a permanent truce and the establishment of a civilian-led government. However, past attempts to resolve the conflict have largely faltered, leaving millions of Sudanese at the mercy of an unrelenting war.
As the situation continues to evolve, the need for immediate humanitarian assistance and a concerted international effort to end the violence has never been more urgent. The plight of the Sudanese people hangs in the balance as the conflict shows no signs of abating, underscoring the critical need for global attention and action.
