The shifting geopolitics of Asia has unexpectedly placed India back in the spotlight, marking a significant transformation from its earlier historical roles. In the colonial period, British India was instrumental in shaping the regional security order, actively participating in both World Wars and various conflicts. However, after gaining independence, India’s leadership consciously opted for a non-aligned stance, stepping away from active security involvement and rejecting Cold War block politics. This self-imposed geopolitical retreat, combined with a distancing from Western capital under the banner of socialism, led to India’s marginalization in the Asian landscape, despite its commitment to post-colonial solidarity in foreign policy.
The end of the Cold War initiated a shift in this trajectory. India began to embrace a more open economic policy in the 1990s, leading to a notable surge in growth. By the late 2020s, projections suggest that India could surpass Japan, becoming the second-largest economy in Asia, and the third-largest globally. This economic transformation is paralleled by a significant increase in defense spending, positioning India as the sixth-largest military spender worldwide by 2024, alongside possessing the third-largest armed forces. Furthermore, the 21st century has seen rapid advancements in India’s technological capabilities, particularly in digital fields. Consequently, India’s comprehensive national power, which had been in relative decline, has started to ascend both in absolute and relative terms.
However, possessing national capabilities alone does not automatically equate to being a great power. Post-World War II examples like Germany and Japan illustrate states with significant capabilities constrained by domestic pacifism and the status of junior partners in a U.S.-led alliance system. In contrast, India shares an ambition with China to emerge as a major world power, coinciding with a decisive shift away from the constraining ideology of non-alignment.
India’s strategic location at the center of Asia and in the heart of the Indian Ocean positions it as a vital player in the region’s balance of power. The conceptualization of the “Indo-Pacific” as a strategic region underscores India’s reintegration into Asian geopolitics. However, as India’s relative standing improves, the broader political and economic landscape in Asia is also rapidly evolving. New Delhi’s significance will hinge on its capability to navigate these changes, mitigate potential adverse impacts, and leverage its position to enhance its influence in the regional order.
The transformation of China’s military capabilities, fueled by its booming economy, has set the stage for its potential dominance in Asian geopolitics. China’s aspirations for regional preeminence are at odds not only with the United States but also with its neighbors, many of whom resist Beijing’s hegemony. This landscape is complicated by the intersecting tensions between China and the U.S., as well as between Beijing and its neighbors, creating a new geopolitical contest in Asia.
The implications of these tensions have been further complicated by the shifting U.S. policy landscape under President Donald Trump. His second term has seen a significant pivot in U.S. relations with Asia. Trump’s initial break from traditional engagement with China marked a seismic shift in U.S. policy, emphasizing great-power rivalry and framing the Indo-Pacific strategy. This included revitalizing the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and a proactive approach to countering China, alongside re-evaluating alliances and trade relations.
President Joe Biden has largely continued this trajectory, intensifying the balancing act against China while emphasizing sustained engagement to prevent escalating tensions. However, the continuity of U.S. policy faces uncertainty with Trump’s potential return to power. His administration’s approach has included imposing tariffs on Asian allies, indicating a departure from traditional U.S. economic engagement strategies, which historically fostered strong partnerships.
Trump’s skepticism towards alliances has deepened, raising concerns about the implications for regional security. His previous overtures toward a grand bargain with China, juxtaposed with his disdain for multilateral institutions, contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty for U.S. allies in Asia.
India’s emerging regional role is underscored by its complex dynamics with both China and the United States. Initially, India sought to forge a post-Western order in Asia through cooperation with China; today, however, the two nations find themselves in a protracted confrontation along a disputed Himalayan border. As China has sought to assert its influence and challenge India’s traditional dominance in South Asia, New Delhi has pivoted towards balancing against Beijing through economic de-risking and collaboration with the U.S. and its allies.
Washington has recognized the potential of this partnership, evident in the adoption of the Indo-Pacific framework and the formation of the Quad, with both nations sharing concerns about China’s regional ambitions. However, India’s cautious approach to geopolitical balancing reflects internal debates and the need to avoid provocations against Beijing.
Despite significant investments from the U.S. aimed at enhancing India’s regional role, recent developments under Trump’s second term have prompted questions about the trajectory of U.S.-India relations. Trump’s unexpected focus on the Kashmir issue and his tepid support for India during military skirmishes with Pakistan have rekindled fears that Washington may not prioritize India’s interests.
Amid these challenges, India is exploring how to navigate its great-power relationships. This includes a renewed emphasis on maintaining ties with Russia, despite the geopolitical costs associated with Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. Yet, as Russia aligns more closely with China, India must also contend with the broader implications for its strategic partnerships.
India’s new focus on “strategic autonomy” and “multi-alignment” stands in contrast to its historical non-alignment, complicating its relationship with the U.S. and its allies. As the U.S. grapples with its own foreign policy recalibrations, India sees an opportunity to assert greater responsibility for regional security while balancing its aspirations with practical realities.
India’s ability to address five broad challenges—enhancing regional stability, fostering economic integration, engaging with regional institutions, managing relations with neighboring countries, and navigating domestic political dynamics—will define its role in shaping the future of Asia. As it seeks to elevate its status, India must not only bolster its military capabilities and economic ties but also address the underlying tensions with its neighbors and the effects of its domestic political environment on its international engagements. Balancing these pressures will be crucial for India as it strives to carve out a significant role on the Asian stage.
