By Mr. Maverick
Round numbers have always had an intrinsic magnetism, creating a sense of comfort and reassurance. It is no wonder, then, that a centennial anniversary always carries an extra weight in a nation’s history.
In 2047, approximately 1,4 billion people of the world’s most populous democracy will celebrate 100 years of independence. When India gained its independence from British rule in 1947, many skeptics raised questions regarding its odds of survival. Most insisted that the country was too big and too diverse to prosper as a single nation-state and its population too impoverished and uneducated to sustain a democratic system of governance.
Nonetheless, for a nascent state, India has covered quite a long distance, far exceeding the above expectations. The country has been on a roll during the past few years, having seen a dramatic surge of economic growth in several areas like the automobile and pharmaceutical industries, the renewable energy sector and financial technology (fintech), landing at the 5th place of the world’s largest economies at this time of writing. India has been a global outperformer, demonstrating a much stronger performance than most developed economies following the pandemic.
Narendra Modi, the newly re-elected Prime Minister of India, who has been steering the country since 2014, certainly deserves some, if not a lot, credit for this phenomenal upward trend. The fact that India’s per capita GDP grew by 55% between 2014 and 2023, and that the country went from the ninth largest economy in the world to the fifth largest within that time period, paint quite a picture.
In spite of these impressive signs of economic prosperity, the future of the Indian republic seems considerably less rosy than the soaring trends we see in the charts. To begin with, Modi has secured his inveterate predominant position by centralizing power in his office to an astonishing degree. By amassing tremendous power, Modi has significantly undermined the independence of public and democratic institutions such as the judiciary and the media. The fact that India ranks 161 out of 180 countries surveyed in the World Press Index, which analyses the levels of journalistic freedom, is indicative of the country’s democratic decline.
Moreover, with cunning and diligence, Modi has progressively built a cult of personality around himself, declaring every now and then that he is the embodiment of the party, the government and the nation. Examples of his extreme showmanship and self-projection are ample, such as his portrait on the COVID-19 vaccination certificate and his photo on all government schemes and welfare packages, just to name a few.
These domineering practices and extreme manifestations of a personalist democracy give the impression that Modi’s authority pushes the world’s largest democracy closer and closer to becoming a democracy only in name and an electoral autocracy in essence.
A Hindu Giant with feet of clay
Amidst this blend of positive and alarming signs, the single most distinguished feature of Modi’s ten-year governance, that will arguably have the most profound impact on the future of India, is his effort to compel cultural uniformity.
As we mentioned, India is a highly diverse country. India is a huge, sprawling federation of states, which, in terms of cultural, religious and language diversity, highly resembles the European Union (save for the Christian majority of Europeans). There are many different peoples such as the Bengalis, the Tamils and the Punjabis, to name a few, who all have a rich cultural history, each distinct from one another. This deep-rooted diversity creates at times a wide divergence of interests and priorities.
Historically, coalition governments respected and cherished this heterogeneity. A policy of inclusiveness fostered this diverse reality and expressed the pluralistic ethos of the country’s most prominent figure, Mahatma Gandhi. Yet, Modi, raised and nurtured at the core of the Hindu nationalist movement, has a diametrically opposed standpoint. He is adamant that the civilizational character of India is defined by the demographic predominance of the Hindus, who comprise roughly 80% of the population.
In this respect, Modi has strived to expand the Hindu cultural imprint all over the country, by imposing Hindi, the language of the north, to states where it is scarcely used and by revitalizing Hinduism, increasing the number of Hindu rituals in important secular occasions. Modi surprised the world at the G20 Summit in 2023 when he used, with an evident political overtone, the epithet “Prime Minister of Bharat”, a word used interchangeably at times with the word India. The name goes back to the Great Emperor Bharata who is known as the initial conqueror of the whole subcontinent and a core element of the Hindu identity, marking a clear antithesis to the 1200 years under Muslim rule, such as the Mughal dynasty, and, consequently, to the Muslim minority of 200 million living in the country.
This has led many of his staunch supporters to declare that Modi is the sole leader who has achieved a truer independence – a successful decolonizing of the mind – by reclaiming and giving prominence to India’s Hindu civilizational roots. However, notwithstanding their grandeur, the impressive Hindu temples and monuments have fallen short of solving severe structural problems in the country.
Welfare, not Demography, is India’s Destiny
Even though Hindus form a solid majority of the population and, as such, a potentially enormous voting pool, identity, as a source of political power, proved inadequate. In these elections, Modi’s re-election was something of a pyrrhic victory, as he and his party didn’t manage to meet the expectations created nor validate the predictions of the exit polls by securing 272 seats – the number required to form the government independently. What is more surprising, however, is that in the so-called “Hindi Belt”, in northern India, the bulwark of Modi’s party, many Hindu people turned their backs on the PM.
As Narendra Modi was storming to victory in the election of 2014, he said that “acchhe din aane waale hain” — good times are coming. And they did. Per capita GDP rose over 40% in 8 years, and, in the poorest rural districts, life was made significantly more bearable. Yet, the overall betterment of the Indian economy and the bullish climate surrounding it haven’t eliminated every problem.
Economic growth has been uncomfortably unequal in a socially divided country. Most Indians are rural, and 75 percent of them are by most measures poor, qualifying for free food rations intended to prevent malnutrition. Unemployment rates are also high, especially among young Indians. Officially, about 7 percent of Indians are unemployed. Vastly more are underemployed. At the same time, participation of women in the labor market remains low. On top of that, climate change further threatens the sustainability of India’s growth. In 2022, India ranked 180 out 180 in the Environmental Performance Index. This environmental deterioration will prove extremely costly both economically and socially, especially for the future generations.
In the last elections, people showed that they didn’t want power to rest with a single party, let alone a single man. What is more, the deep-rooted problems of the Indian society reminded poignantly that, heedless of the wide recognition that the country enjoys internationally, it is still building the plane as it flies it.
Modi recently lost, at least to some extent, the unrestricted freedom of movement that he enjoyed the last 10 years. His inexorable showmanship and his obsession with the establishment of cultural uniformity risked and eventually crossed the line of hubris, colliding with the persisting struggles that permeate everyday life in India.
As a “Friends” enthusiast, whenever I think about turning points like the recent Indian elections, I remember a legendary scene from the famous American sitcom. During Ross’s house move, the main characters are trying to carry a cumbersome couch up the staircase, which of course requires a great amount of effort and coordination. Typical ‘Ross’ then starts at some point shouting in a hilarious, distinctive tone: “Pivot! Pivot! Pivot!”
Will Modi, the powerful Indian PM, moderate his ambitions and turn the tide during his new tenure? Will he pivot, and how will this pivot affect India and the rest of the world?
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