By Stefanos Michelakakis and Alexandros Sainidis
As it is New Year’s Eve and everyone is reading to brainstorm their New Year’s resolutions and think back about what happened this year, we decided to map out some developments in 2024 and try to think how they will continue to evolve in 2025.
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So, without further ado, here are the developments that stood out in 2024.
Europe
Unfortunately, 2024 did not see the end of the Ukrainian war. The invasion continues to escalate with multiple attacks on different parts of Ukraine and the grinding advancement of Russia, while Ukraine counterattacks within Russia. 2024 saw the direct involvement of North Korea in the war, with its troops fighting alongside the Russian army, and, as of November, the outgoing Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use Western arms to conduct attacks on the territory of Russia. There are many indicators of the Ukrainian war causing an ever-greater economic strain on the European Union, including administrative signals and cuts.
Political turmoil and fatigue have put Western aid in question. President-elect Trump has promised to end the war by Inauguration Day, making people believe that a bad comprise for Ukraine is coming. However, Sergei Lavrov has already rejected Trump’s proposals to stop the war, which might result in the US offering a more favorable deal to Russia. Despite that, the European Union remains committed to supporting Ukraine. The question is – for how long? We hope the answer will be ‘not long’ as a result of finding a solution, rather than a result of economic exhaustion.
Now, let’s take a look at the French elections. The European elections in France saw the Emmanuel Macron political party coming second to the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen. After the defeat, Macron called for the dissolution of parliament and snap legislative elections. The elections resulted in a hung parliament, and since then, France has merged into a political fragmentation, with four appointed prime ministers in one year. Οn December 13th, Macron appointed the Democratic Movement leader Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister, hoping to avoid a collapse that would deepen the country’s crisis and pressure from financial markets.
The other pole of the European Union, Germany, also faces trouble. The three-party coalition government under Olaf Scholz collapsed when Finance Minister Lindner was fired after disagreements on reviving the economy.
Federal elections will be held in February 2025, with political parties such as the Christian Democrats and Alternative for Germany (AfD) nominating candidates for chancellor. It’s worth mentioning that the party of Olaf Scholz, Social Democrats, has not officially appointed him as a nominee, with the current Defence Minister gaining popularity as an alternative candidate.
Despite the crises around, the accession process of candidate countries to the EU is not an overlooked matter. The war in Ukraine gave the EU’s enlargement a new momentum. According to EU officials, Montenegro and Albania could conclude talks on membership in the bloc by 2026 and 2027, respectively, with both countries joining the geographical scope of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). On the other hand, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo failed to proceed further with their candidature due to internal or external political disputes.
The situation is different in the former Soviet Republics, Georgia and Moldova. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that the negotiations with the EU will be on hold until the end of 2028. In Moldova, a referendum marked by allegations of interference from third countries gave the pro-EU camp a narrow win.
Accession to the EU is a lengthy process, characterised by six clusters, each including different negotiating chapters. It’s very likely that the accession process will continue for the Western Balkans, but it’s interesting to observe the situation in Moldova, given that the domestic support for EU membership is low, with the diaspora supporting an EU membership.
North and South America
These U.S. elections had it all; from an assassination attempt of Donald J. Trump to Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris as a candidate for the Democratic Party. The elections found Trump to become the 47th President of the United States.
Trump has promised action on several issues, such as the economy, migration, and the War in Ukraine. He has also proposed tariffs on foreign goods to cut the trade deficit and limit climate regulations that bind the US. It will be worth keeping an eye on whether the notorious Project 2025 will actually be implemented regardless of Trump’s efforts to disassociate himself from this policy blueprint.
In Mexico, this year’s elections saw the first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. The left-wing climate scientist appears to be a technocrat with progressive views who aims to continue the pursuit of social justice.
However, for this new administration, President-elect Donald Trump has created a series of worries for Mexico. From the threat of trade wars to military action against cartels, Sheinbaum has enough on her plate to deal with. Additionally, in anticipation of potential mass deportations under the incoming U.S. President, Mexico introduced a phone app equipped with a “panic button” that will allow detained migrants to alert nearby consulates and family members.
Moving on to Venezuela, the July presidential election was marred by controversy, with both incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and opposition candidate Edmundo González claiming victory. The effort diminished Maduro’s legitimacy domestically and internationally.
Since then, Latin American countries such as Brazil and Colombia have somewhat distanced themselves from his regime. After Argentina refused to recognise Nicolás Maduro’s re-election, diplomatic relations between the two countries were broken, with the Argentinian embassy in Caracas sheltering opposition activists, deteriorating their relations.
Middle East
The war in Gaza persisted throughout 2024 and resulted in substantial economic, military, and human costs and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. A notable development was the arrest warrants the International Criminal Court issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. Simultaneously, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately suspend its military operation at Rafah, an order Israel has not complied with.
The US is trying to push for a cease-fire agreement and remains optimistic that this can happen in the final days of President Joe Biden’s term. However, the talks have faced many challenges and are on the verge of collapse. The one-year deadline set by the UN General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September. Still, it’s highly unlikely that this will take place.
Israeli attacks on Gaza intensified by airstrikes on Lebanese soil, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah as a response to its attacks on northern Israel. According to the Health Ministry of Lebanon, the death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon surpasses 3,000, with many civilian casualties and concerns about war crimes. During the attacks, the leader of Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed.
A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on November 27, calling for a phased Israeli military pullout and the relocation of Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River. However, Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon, causing tensions and concerns about the ceasefire’s durability.
In April, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones toward Israel in its first direct attack following an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Six months later, Iran initiated a second direct attack on Israel, firing approximately 200 ballistic missiles. Israel, aided by international allies, intercepted most of these missiles and proceeded to retaliate with airstrikes on military facilities in Iran. Besides that, Iran had to deal with the death of its President Ebrahim Raisi, along with the country’s foreign minister, after their helicopter crashed in dense fog in a mountainous region of the country’s northwest.
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Iran will face challenges to its regional influence and will most likely focus on restating its influence on the new Syrian government, as the Iranian Foreign Minister mentioned.
Speaking of Assad, in early December 2024, Syrian rebels, primarily from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a rapid offensive that led to the capture of Damascus on December 8. President Assad fled the country, reportedly seeking asylum in Russia. Following Assad’s departure, HTS established a new government, appointing Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, as the de facto leader. The new administration intends to hold elections within four years and is working towards drafting a new constitution.
Syria under Assad had a strong alliance with Russia and Iran, helping against the rebels that now are in power. However, since the Syrian forces themselves showed very little resistance, the two strongest supporters were not very motivated to help. Plus, potentially, some treacherous behaviours, that lowered confidence in Assad. In light of the new dynamics, it will be interesting to see how the alliances in the Middle East unfold, with two key players, Israel and Turkey expanding their reach within Syria.
Africa
Sudan’s civil war, which began in 2023 following a military coup, continued to ravage the country throughout 2024. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resulted in significant loss of life, widespread displacement, and destruction of infrastructure. The civil war has triggered one of the worst humanitarian crises in Africa. The UN and various NGOs have struggled to provide aid, with resources being heavily restricted or diverted by warring factions.
With no decisive military victory on the horizon, experts say that Sudan, whose war is often overlooked, is going to see more displacement, more hunger and more disease outbreaks in 2025, compounding what is already the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
In 2024, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remained a focal point of regional tensions and diplomatic negotiations among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. In July 2024, Ethiopia commenced the fifth filling of the GERD without reaching an agreement with downstream countries, particularly Egypt and Sudan. This unilateral action intensified existing tensions, as both nations have consistently expressed concerns over the dam’s potential impact on their water security.
Ethiopia has continuously resisted outside intervention, while Egypt has pursued external mediation through organisations like the Arab League, the UN Security Council, and the Gulf States. If the situation worsens and Ethiopia continues unilateral actions, a future battle for control of the Nile rivers between the nations is possible.
Asia and Oceania
China is giving the world the Sun Tzu treatment. While media has been ‘attacking’ it for its slightly slower growth, the truth is that the rest of the world is not really doing anyhow better – and power is relative; not absolute. There is a general air of growing mistrust towards China with increasing intelligence activities and tension around Taiwan. But why is it playing the Sun Tzu game? Because it wants its competitors, including its junior partner Russia, to spend resources around Russian borders and Middle East, constraining the ‘pivot to Asia’. One of the U.S.’ sources of economic superiority after the World Wars was the very limited amount of damage it suffered.
In response to regional tensions between China and North Korea, Japan passed a new defence policy in April, boosting its defence spending and enhancing capabilities in cyber and space. Tokyo wants smoother ties with Beijing, given the likely tumultuousness of the U.S.-China relationship and the global situation more broadly once Trump comes into office. However, China’s claims on the East China Sea render it challenging to reduce longstanding tensions.
Concerning South Korea, president Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on December 14th, following months of political unrest and allegations of corruption. The Prime Minister acted as president until last Friday, when he was also impeached, leaving one of Washington’s most important allies without an elected leader during North Korea’s nuclear threats and economic challenges at home.
Conclusion
This year was no short of surprises and factors of instability that might reshape traditional alliances and uncover unexpected realities in 2025. Five years ago, 2020 started with the death of Iran’s Qasem Soleimani, which shocked the world, partially because it was ‘only the start of that year‘. With the same rationale in mind, many may be, wishfully, thinking that because so many events took place closer to the end of 2025, its start should be much calmer. However, nothing can guarantee that, especially with increasing worries about the U.S. stock market close to mid 2025. However, we can still hope that the perceived instabilities will make the key players adopt a more risk-averse stance, potentially prolonging global stability. And yet, we should not forget that risk answers to specific state and individual interests and not ours, of plain observers, who much prefer a peaceful 2025.
